Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets: Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, seeCoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $101,000 as the Friday trading day begins in Hong Kong, a key metric being closely watched by market analysts. However, a prominent on-chain analytics firm, CryptoQuant, is issuing a stark warning, characterizing current market conditions as “extremely bearish,” signaling a potential significant downturn. This assessment is based on several critical indicators within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report highlights a concerning technical shift. Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the 365-day moving average of $102,000, a level that previously served as a fundamental and psychologically significant support floor for this current bull cycle. This breach represents the loss of a key benchmark, traditionally marking the beginning of a substantial decline in value. The firm’s Bull Score Index, a sophisticated composite measure designed to gauge the overall strength of the market, has also fallen to zero for the first time since June 2022. This particular reading is notable because it mirrors a signal last observed before the preceding bear market, intensifying concerns among investors. Further bolstering the bearish outlook, CryptoQuant’s on-chain realized price bands now point to potential downside targets for Bitcoin, suggesting potential support levels as low as $72,000 if the cryptocurrency fails to demonstrate a swift recovery above the $100,000 threshold.
Adding another layer of scrutiny, CryptoQuant has identified the $91,000 region as the next structural support level. This assessment utilizes Metcalfe’s network valuation model, a rigorous technique for evaluating the value of networks based on their size and connectivity. “Failure to reclaim the 365-day moving average quickly could trigger a much larger correction,” the firm cautioned, highlighting the urgency of a potential recovery. The analysts emphasize that if Bitcoin’s price continues to stagnate or decline below this level, a more substantial and prolonged downturn is a realistic possibility. The current market environment is mirroring conditions observed in late 2021, when a similar break below the long-term average confirmed the start of a drawn-out bear market, further reinforcing the gravity of the situation.
Despite these pessimistic pronouncements from CryptoQuant, not all market observers share this overwhelmingly bearish view. A recent report titled “Defending $100K” released by Glassnode offers a more cautious perspective. The report indicates that the market remains “cautious, oversold, but not yet deeply capitulated,” suggesting that while investor sentiment is negative and the percentage of supply still in profit is relatively low, an indication of a shift. As of today, 71% of the market cap. However, long-term holders are selling and ETF outflows continue, Glassnode says the current phase is a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a bear market.
The market movementBTC:Bitcoin slipped as low as $10,420 overnight before recovering slightly to trade around $101,00 in Asia hours, extending a weeklong decline that’s wiped nearly 7% from its value.ETH:Ether fell to an intraday low of $3,285 before edging back to $3,310 in early Asia trading, down about2% on the day and roughly13% over the past week.Gold:Gold rebounded toward the $4,00 level on Wednesday, rising as much as1.5% to $3,989.53 an ounce as investors sought safety amid a global equities sell-off, even as strong U.S.jobs data tempered expectations for further Fed rate cuts.Story ContinuesNikkei225:Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Friday, tracking Wall Street’s tech-led sell-off as AI stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir slumped, while investors awaited China’s trade data expected to show weaker exports and imports.Elsewhere in Crypto:What DraftKings and FanDuel Prediction Market Plays Mean for the Sports Betting Biz (Decrypt)Samourai Wallet Developer Sentenced to 5Years in Prison for Unlicensed Money Transmitting (CoinDesk)Central Bank of Ireland fines Coinbase Europe $25 million for breaching anti-money laundering monitoring obligations (The Block)CORRECTION (Nov.7, 06:00 UTC):Corrects attribution of ‘bearish’ comment in headline.